2025 South Korean Snap Presidential Election: Analysis of Major Party Primaries and Economic Impact Forecast

 

I. Summary

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the ongoing primary elections within the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and the People Power Party (PPP) ahead of the snap presidential election scheduled for June 3, 2025, following the impeachment and removal of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. It summarizes the profiles, key pledges (especially economic), political careers, and achievements of the main candidates from each party. Based on the current primary landscape and public opinion poll results , it predicts the final presidential nominee for each party. The report then analyzes the core economic pledges of the predicted leading contenders in detail and estimates their potential impact on the South Korean economy over the next five years, using reports from domestic and international research institutions and principles of economic modeling.  

Considering the primary situation thus far and overwhelming poll results , the nomination of former DPK leader Lee Jae-myung is almost certain. In contrast, the PPP primary, narrowed down to four candidates (Kim Moon-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo, Han Dong-hoon, Hong Joon-pyo) after the first cut-off , faces relatively higher uncertainty in predicting the final nominee, given poll results and the 50% weight of party member votes. Currently, former interim leader Han Dong-hoon or Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo appear to have a relatively higher probability of securing the nomination.  

The economic pledges of the predicted frontrunners show a stark contrast. Lee Jae-myung champions "Transformative and Fair Growth" , focusing on income redistribution and boosting domestic demand through Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Basic Loans. Han Dong-hoon, on the other hand, presents a supply-side growth strategy emphasizing the cultivation of high-tech industries and strategic regional development through "Regulation Zero Zones" and "Tax Zero Funds".  

Estimates of the economic impact of these core pledges suggest that Lee Jae-myung's policies could contribute to short-term consumption growth and reduced income inequality, but carry risks such as potential growth rate decline, increased inflationary pressure, and worsening fiscal health, depending on funding methods. Han Dong-hoon's policies, if successfully implemented, could enhance growth potential through increased investment and accelerated innovation, but face challenges including policy effectiveness uncertainty, fiscal burden from tax revenue reduction, and the possibility of initial inequality deepening. All numerical forecasts in this report are estimates based on currently available information and economic principles, and are subject to change depending on various factors such as specific policy design and shifts in domestic and international economic conditions. Baseline economic forecasts reference projections from major institutions like KDI, the Bank of Korea, and the IMF.  

II. 2025 South Korean Presidential Election Environment

1. Snap Election Following Impeachment

The 21st presidential election, scheduled for June 3, 2025, is the second snap election in South Korean constitutional history held after the impeachment of a sitting president. Following former President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration of emergency martial law on December 3, 2024, the National Assembly passed an impeachment motion on December 14. The Constitutional Court subsequently delivered a unanimous decision to remove him from office on April 4, 2025. According to the Constitution, a successor must be elected within 60 days of a presidential vacancy , thus fixing the date for the next election. This abrupt political shift has significantly impacted the presidential preparation schedules of major political parties, particularly the People Power Party, which was the ruling party and experienced considerable turmoil in its candidate selection process.  

2. Major Party Landscape

The current South Korean political landscape is dominated by the two major parties: the liberal-progressive Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and the conservative People Power Party (PPP). Other parties with parliamentary seats include the Rebuilding Korea Party, the New Reform Party, and the Progressive Party, which show some level of support in opinion polls. This snap election is expected to be fiercely contested among these parties.  

3. Significance of Party Primaries

Amid heightened political polarization following the impeachment, each party's primary is more than just a candidate selection process; it could be a crucial turning point determining South Korea's future political and economic direction. Notably, opinion polls showing sentiment for 'regime change' significantly outweighing 'regime continuation (extension)' create a favorable environment for the DPK while intensifying the sense of crisis within the PPP. Against this backdrop, each party is engaged in intense internal competition to select the candidate with the highest potential for success in the general election.  

The unprecedented event of impeachment is profoundly impacting the political terrain. The strong desire for 'regime change' evident in polls can be interpreted as reflecting public judgment on the impeachment crisis and the consolidation of the DPK's support base. Conversely, the PPP is struggling to rebound in approval ratings , facing the dual challenges of accountability for the impeachment and internal divisions , which complicates the primary process. Consequently, this election is likely to be heavily influenced by political judgment on the impeachment crisis as much as policy debates, potentially unfolding as an intense confrontation between the two main political camps.  

III. Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) Primary Analysis

1. Candidate Overview

The DPK primary features candidates such as former party leader Lee Jae-myung, Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon, and former South Gyeongsang Province Governor Kim Kyoung-soo. (While polls also mention lawmaker Kim Doo-kwan , the race appears to be consolidating around these three main contenders.)  

• Lee Jae-myung: A former lawyer who served as Mayor of Seongnam and Governor of Gyeonggi Province. He narrowly lost the 2022 presidential election and subsequently served as the DPK leader. His core pledges are represented by Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Basic Loans. UBI aims to provide KRW 1 million annually to all citizens and KRW 2 million annually to young adults (19-29), with long-term considerations for expansion up to KRW 6 million annually. Funding sources include land value taxes and carbon taxes. Basic Loans offer government-guaranteed loans up to KRW 10 million at a low interest rate of around 3%, regardless of credit score. Under his vision of 'Transformative and Fair Growth,' he emphasizes resolving inequality (e.g., between large corporations and SMEs, platforms and non-regular workers, real estate disparities) and promotes a Green New Deal, digital transformation (including data dividends), fair competition, labor market justice, and strengthening the social safety net. He supports free trade but opposes protectionist measures like US semiconductor regulations , advocating for pragmatic diplomacy centered on national interest. Recently, he also announced pledges related to healthcare reform and the environment. He possesses high public recognition and a strong base within the party.  

• Kim Dong-yeon: The current Governor of Gyeonggi Province , he previously served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance in the Moon Jae-in administration. After graduating from Deoksu Commercial High School, he worked as a bank clerk while attending night university, eventually passing both the legislative and administrative civil service exams to become an economic bureaucrat. He held high-ranking positions in various governments, including Vice Minister of Strategy and Finance in the Lee Myung-bak administration and the first Minister for Government Policy Coordination in the Park Geun-hye administration , and also served as President of Ajou University. Under the slogan "Cheerful Rebellion" , he advocates for dismantling vested interests and social reform, positioning himself as a centrist pragmatist. Despite his background as an economic bureaucrat conveying an image of stability and rationality, his policies lean towards progressive reform. He has expressed intent to push for the enactment of the 'Yellow Envelope Bill,' which limits corporate damage claims against striking workers. As Governor, he focuses on regional development and attracting investment to Gyeonggi Province. His integrity was recognized for refusing bribes during the Sung Wan-jong list scandal.  

• Kim Kyoung-soo: Former Governor of South Gyeongsang Province , widely known as the last chief secretary to former President Roh Moo-hyun. He enjoys support from the pro-Roh and pro-Moon factions. He was convicted in the 'Druking' opinion-rigging scandal but later pardoned and reinstated. He is seeking a political comeback through the primary. (Detailed pledge information is limited).  

Table 1: Comparison of Main DPK Primary Candidates

Candidate Name	Core Economic Pledges (Based on Key Statements)	Key Career Experience	Representative Achievements / Political Stance
Lee Jae-myung	- Universal Basic Income (UBI) & Expansion of Basic Services<br>- Basic Loans (Low-interest, government-guaranteed loans)<br>- Transformative and Fair Growth (Addressing inequality, Green/Digital transition)<br>- Supports free trade, opposes protectionism	- Lawyer<br>- Mayor of Seongnam (2010-2018)<br>- Governor of Gyeonggi Province (2018-2021)<br>- 20th Presidential Election Candidate<br>- DPK Leader (2022-2025)	- Basic income experiments in Seongnam/Gyeonggi<br>- Strong drive<br>- High recognition & strong party base
Kim Dong-yeon	- 'Cheerful Rebellion' (Dismantling vested interests, social reform)<br>- Centrist pragmatism, emphasis on fair opportunity<br>- Supports 'Yellow Envelope Bill'<br>- Gyeonggi investment attraction & regional development	- Economic Bureaucrat (Vice Minister of Finance, Minister of Gov. Policy Coordination, etc.)<br>- President of Ajou University (15th)<br>- Deputy PM & Minister of Economy and Finance (4th)<br>- Governor of Gyeonggi Province (36th, incumbent)	- Experience in high-ranking positions across governments<br>- Economic expertise & stability<br>- Integrity (Refused Sung Wan-jong bribe)
Kim Kyoung-soo	(Specific economic pledge information limited)	- Secretary to President Roh Moo-hyun<br>- National Assembly Member (20th)<br>- Governor of South Gyeongsang Province (37th)	- Key figure in pro-Roh/pro-Moon faction<br>- Controversy related to Druking scandal<br>- Seeking political comeback

2. Primary Dynamics and Candidate Prediction

The DPK primary is proceeding with Lee Jae-myung holding an overwhelming lead, supported by various opinion polls. According to the April NBS survey, Lee Jae-myung recorded 44% in DPK candidate suitability, significantly ahead of Kim Dong-yeon (8%) and Kim Kyoung-soo (3%). Among DPK supporters, Lee's support reached 87%. In the Realmeter survey for the 3rd week of April, he also led decisively with 50.2% support among potential next presidential candidates , 53.4% in DPK candidate suitability , and 82.9% support among DPK supporters and independents , solidifying his dominant position.  

Kim Dong-yeon and Kim Kyoung-soo are appealing for support by presenting themselves as alternatives to Lee, but they struggle to overcome his high recognition, strong organizational power, and experience from the previous presidential election and party leadership. Kim Dong-yeon attempts to leverage his economic expertise and stability, while Kim Kyoung-soo tries to consolidate the pro-Roh/pro-Moon base, but neither has managed to create a significant shift in poll numbers.  

Therefore, it is almost certain that the DPK's final presidential nominee will be former leader Lee Jae-myung. The current primary resembles a confirmation process for Lee's dominance rather than a genuine competition. This can be attributed to the party's sentiment favoring 'regime change' , coalescing around Lee, who is perceived as the most competitive candidate. His strong support base and recognition, built through the last presidential election and his tenure as party leader, are key factors widening the gap with other candidates. The lack of a clear alternative force emerging within the party also reinforces this trend. This could also be seen as a strategic decision by the DPK to quickly unite around Lee Jae-myung in the snap election context and prepare for the general election.  

IV. People Power Party (PPP) Primary Analysis

1. Candidate Overview (Focus on 4 Candidates Post-1st Cut-off)

The PPP primary initially involved 8 candidates , but was narrowed down to four—Kim Moon-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo—after the first cut-off on April 22. (Detailed profiles of eliminated candidates Na Kyung-won, Yang Hyang-ja, Yoo Jeong-bok, and Lee Cheol-woo are in the Appendix.)  

• Kim Moon-soo: Former Governor of Gyeonggi Province (32nd, 33rd) and Minister of Employment and Labor. He has a unique background, transitioning from a labor activist in the 1970s-80s to a conservative politician. With the slogan "Newly Forward! Toward a Great Korea!" , he emphasizes defending the liberal democratic system, positioning himself as the candidate who can "defeat Lee Jae-myung," and advocates for grand integration and coalition politics. He focuses on appealing to youth and conservative voters by addressing job creation and pension issues. He enjoys strong support among the party's conservative base.  

• Ahn Cheol-soo: A physician and politician who founded AhnLab, currently a National Assembly member (Seongnam Bundang Gap). He declared his candidacy in the 2012 presidential election but later withdrew. He has experienced political ups and downs, founding and merging several parties (co-leader of New Politics Alliance for Democracy, founder and leader of People Party, Bareunmirae Party, joined PPP). He also ran in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections , unifying his candidacy with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2022. Classified as center-right, he shows strengths in science, technology, and education. His specific economic pledges for this primary have not yet clearly emerged.  

• Han Dong-hoon: A former prosecutor who served as the first Minister of Justice in the Yoon Suk Yeol administration and led the PPP as interim leader through the 2024 general election. Though considered a close associate of former President Yoon , he has recently shown independent political moves. Despite a relatively short political career, he is gaining attention as a new leader in the conservative camp. He has proposed "Regulation Zero Zones" and "Tax Zero Funds" as core economic pledges. Regulation Zero Zones involve designating special zones for five national strategic industries (AI, bio, future mobility, etc.) and completely eliminating related regulations within them. Tax Zero Funds are investment funds for these zones, offering tax deferral on capital gains from selling Seoul metropolitan area real estate if invested, and tax reduction/exemption for long-term investments. Through these, he aims to achieve Top 3 AI nation status, $40,000 per capita income, and a 70% middle-class share , emphasizing the creation of high-tech industrial clusters and strategic balanced national development.  

• Hong Joon-pyo: The current Mayor of Daegu , he gained fame as the 'Sandglass Prosecutor' during his time as a prosecutor. A veteran politician, he served five terms in the National Assembly (15th-18th, 21st) , led the Grand National/Liberty Korea Party , and served as Governor of South Gyeongsang Province (35th, 36th). He ran in the 2017 presidential election, finishing second. Pledging to create a "country where ordinary people live well" , he rallies support based on his strong conservative image. He advocates for fiscal soundness, strengthening national security, and labor reform , and has hinted at the possibility of a coalition with the DPK if necessary. He consistently maintains high support among PPP supporters.  

Table 2: Comparison of PPP Candidates Who Passed the 1st Cut-off

Candidate Name	Core Economic Pledges (Based on Key Statements)	Key Career Experience	Representative Achievements / Political Stance
Kim Moon-soo	- Economy based on defending liberal democracy<br>- Job creation & pension reform<br>- Stable governance through grand integration/coalition	- Labor activist<br>- National Assembly Member (15th-17th)<br>- Governor of Gyeonggi Province (32nd, 33rd)<br>- Minister of Employment and Labor	- Pledge fulfillment rate evaluation as Gyeonggi Governor<br>- Conservative politician with labor activist background<br>- Strong conservative stance
Ahn Cheol-soo	(Specific 2025 economic pledge info limited)<br>- Emphasis on science/tech-based growth (based on past pledges)	- Physician, AhnLab Founder<br>- National Assembly Member (19th-22nd)<br>- Co-leader, New Politics Alliance for Democracy<br>- Leader, People Party/Bareunmirae Party<br>- 2017, 2022 Presidential Candidate	- IT/Venture success story<br>- Center-right positioning<br>- Controversy over frequent party changes
Han Dong-hoon	- Regulation Zero Zones (Eliminate regulations in 5 strategic industries)<br>- Tax Zero Funds (Tax benefits for zone investment)<br>- Goals: Top 3 AI nation, $40k income, 70% middle class<br>- Strategic balanced national development (High-tech clusters)	- Prosecutor (Senior Prosecutor)<br>- Minister of Justice (69th)<br>- PPP Interim Leader	- First Minister of Justice under Yoon admin.<br>- Relatively new political figure<br>- High expectations within conservative base
Hong Joon-pyo	- 'Country where ordinary people live well' (Hints at distribution/welfare focus)<br>- Strengthen fiscal soundness<br>- Labor reform<br>- Strengthen security (e.g., nuclear armament stance)	- Prosecutor<br>- National Assembly Member (15th-18th, 21st)<br>- Leader, Grand National/Liberty Korea Party<br>- Governor of South Gyeongsang Province (35th, 36th)<br>- Mayor of Daegu (35th, incumbent)<br>- 2017 Presidential Candidate (2nd place)	- 'Sandglass Prosecutor' fame<br>- Strong conservative leadership<br>- Extensive election experience, high recognition

2. Primary Dynamics and Candidate Prediction

The PPP primary has been reshaped into a four-way race after the first cut-off (held April 21-22, based 100% on public opinion polls). Kim Moon-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo advanced to the second round. While the first cut-off results only announced the names of the qualifiers without vote shares or rankings , Kim Moon-soo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo were widely expected to advance, with the final spot contested between Na Kyung-won and Ahn Cheol-soo. Ahn's advancement raises the possibility of the second round being framed as a contest between two 'pro-impeachment' candidates (Han, Ahn) versus two 'anti-impeachment' candidates (Kim, Hong).  

Recent opinion polls show a mixed picture. The April NBS survey showed PPP candidate suitability as Hong Joon-pyo (12%), Han Dong-hoon (10%), Kim Moon-soo (9%), and Ahn Cheol-soo (8%). However, the Realmeter survey for the 3rd week of April ranked them Kim Moon-soo (12.2%), Han Dong-hoon (8.5%), Hong Joon-pyo (7.5%), and Ahn Cheol-soo (3.7%). Among PPP supporters and independents, the order was Kim Moon-soo (27.8%), Han Dong-hoon (19.8%), and Hong Joon-pyo (17.9%) , indicating some difference between party base sentiment and general public opinion. Crucially, all PPP candidates lag significantly behind DPK's Lee Jae-myung in hypothetical head-to-head and multi-candidate matchups. This puts pressure on the PPP to select a candidate with strong general election competitiveness.  

The second cut-off is scheduled for announcement on April 29, determining the final two candidates based on a '50% general public opinion poll + 50% party member vote' formula. This method increases the influence of party sentiment (黨心), potentially favoring candidates with strong party bases (e.g., Hong Joon-pyo, Kim Moon-soo). Conversely, candidates relatively stronger in general polls (Han Dong-hoon or Ahn Cheol-soo, depending on the poll) face the challenge of overcoming potential weakness in the party member vote. The pro/anti-impeachment dynamic is another variable that could influence votes. Having two pro-impeachment candidates (Han, Ahn) might split their votes, or conversely, party members critical of the impeachment might consolidate behind Kim Moon-soo and Hong Joon-pyo.  

Considering these complex factors, predicting the final PPP nominee is much more difficult than for the DPK. Variables include polling trends, the direction of the party member vote, and potential alliances between candidates. Nevertheless, considering his relative strength in recent polls and potential as a new figure, former interim leader Han Dong-hoon, and the experienced Mayor Hong Joon-pyo with his strong party base, appear to have a comparatively higher chance of reaching the final two, with one likely becoming the ultimate nominee. However, Kim Moon-soo's strong support from the hardline conservative base and Ahn Cheol-soo's potential for centrist appeal cannot be dismissed, making the final outcome hard to predict.

This contested nature of the PPP primary reflects the party's internal factional conflicts (especially regarding impeachment) and its struggle to find the most 'competitive' candidate to challenge the dominant Lee Jae-myung. The fact that all PPP candidates trail Lee in hypothetical matchups deepens this dilemma. The 50% party member vote rule could exacerbate the gap between party sentiment and public opinion, and the final nominee will likely be determined by the party's strategic choice (consolidating the base vs. expanding outreach).  

V. Comparison of Predicted Nominees' Core Economic Pledges

1. Detailed Economic Pledges of Predicted DPK Nominee (Lee Jae-myung)

• Core Pledge 1: Universal Basic Income (UBI) & Basic Services: Lee's flagship policy aims to provide KRW 1 million annually to all citizens, KRW 2 million annually to young adults (19-29), considers additional payments for farmers, children, the elderly, and disabled, and targets a long-term increase to KRW 6 million annually. Funding is planned through land value taxes and carbon taxes , which could spark debates on tax resistance and economic impacts. The plan also seems to envision expanding universal public services alongside cash payments to enhance welfare levels and mitigate potential disincentive effects of basic income on work motivation.  
• Core Pledge 2: Basic Loans: A system providing government-guaranteed loans up to KRW 10 million at a low interest rate (around 3%) to all citizens, regardless of credit score. It aims to prevent reliance on high-interest loan sharks and improve financial access, but raises concerns about large fiscal outlays and potential loan defaults.  
• Growth Strategy: Transformative and Fair Growth: Based on the perception that unequal distribution of economic growth benefits has worsened inequality and reduced opportunities , this strategy seeks to secure growth momentum by 'restoring fairness.' It targets closing gaps between large corporations and SMEs, protecting platform workers' rights, stabilizing the real estate market, etc., through initiatives like ▲ Green New Deal and digital transformation investments (including data dividends) ▲ education reform ▲ preventing abuse of market dominance and promoting fair competition ▲ improving the dual structure of the labor market ▲ strengthening the social safety net.  
• Trade and Industry: Maintains a pro-free trade stance while being critical of US protectionist measures against key industries like semiconductors. Emphasizes pragmatic trade diplomacy prioritizing national interest and shows interest in securing technological sovereignty and fostering future industries.  

2. Detailed Economic Pledges of Predicted PPP Nominee (Han Dong-hoon Centric)

• Core Pledge 1: Regulation Zero Zones: A bold plan to designate specific areas as 'Regulation Zero Zones' for five national strategic industries (AI, bio, energy, future mobility, semiconductors) , involving the complete and permanent elimination of related regulations within these zones. This aims to induce long-term corporate investment and R&D for innovation-led growth. However, more specific plans regarding the scope and speed of deregulation and measures to prevent adverse effects seem necessary.  
• Core Pledge 2: Tax Zero Funds: Creating funds that invest in Regulation Zero Zone development projects and providing strong tax incentives for investments in these funds. Notably, if proceeds from selling Seoul metropolitan area real estate are invested in these funds, capital gains tax would be immediately deferred, with a 50% reduction for investments over 5 years and full exemption for over 10 years. This strategy aims to attract capital from the Seoul area to non-metropolitan zones but could face criticism regarding significant tax revenue loss and potential real estate market distortions. Tax reductions on fund profits were also mentioned.  
• Growth Strategy: Strategic Regional Development & High-Tech Industry Focus: A vision to foster competitive high-tech industrial clusters 'strategically concentrated' in non-metropolitan areas, not just dispersing budgets , with specific goals of achieving Top 3 AI nation status, $40,000 per capita income, and a 70% middle-class share. This involves ▲ attracting businesses and creating innovation ecosystems ▲ improving settlement conditions based on smart technology (research-business-residential-cultural complexes, autonomous shuttles, digital healthcare, etc.) ▲ fostering high-tech talent through linkages between local universities, research institutions, local governments, and companies.  
• (Note: For Hong Joon-pyo, pledges are likely to center around a 'country where ordinary people live well' , emphasizing fiscal soundness, labor reform , and deregulation. Kim Moon-soo is expected to focus on free-market principles, supporting corporate activity, and job creation.)  

Table 3: Comparison of Predicted Nominees' Core Economic Pledges

Policy Area	Predicted DPK Nominee (Lee Jae-myung)	Predicted PPP Nominee (Han Dong-hoon)
Growth Strategy	Transformative and Fair Growth (Inequality reduction, domestic demand focus)	High-tech Industrial Cluster Development (Investment/innovation focus)
Core Policies	Universal Basic Income (UBI), Basic Loans	Regulation Zero Zones, Tax Zero Funds
Fiscal/Tax Policy	Tax increases (Land value tax, carbon tax, etc.) for funding	Tax cuts (Capital gains tax reduction/exemption for zone investment)
Welfare/Distribution	Expansion of universal welfare (Basic income/services)	Goal of expanding middle class via growth benefits (70%)
Regional Development	(Specific pledges limited, balanced development principle expected)	Strategic concentration on hub development (High-tech clusters)
Regulation	Strengthen regulations for fair competition (market dominance, etc.)	Drastic deregulation (Complete/permanent within zones)
Trade	Supports free trade, pragmatic diplomacy prioritizing national interest	(Specific pledges limited, pro-free trade stance expected)

VI. Estimated Economic Impact of Predicted Nominees' Pledges Over 5 Years

1. Notes on Analytical Approach

This analysis estimates the impact of each predicted nominee's core pledges (focusing on the most frequently mentioned or emphasized policies) on the South Korean economy over the next five years (2025-2029). The analysis synthesizes information from candidate pledges, domestic and international research on similar policies (basic income , government-guaranteed loans , regulation-free zones/SEZs , investment tax incentives ), and baseline forecasts for the Korean economy post-2025 from major institutions like KDI, the Bank of Korea, IMF, and OECD. The figures presented are estimates based on available information and economic principles, not results from sophisticated econometric modeling, and carry significant uncertainty. Actual effects could differ greatly depending on specific policy design and implementation intensity, behavioral changes of households and firms, and unpredictable domestic and external economic shocks (e.g., global recession, sudden changes in the trade environment ).  

2. Estimated Economic Impact of Predicted DPK Nominee (Lee Jae-myung)'s Pledges

• GDP Growth Rate: Basic income and basic loans could boost consumption by increasing household income, positively impacting short-term growth. However, tax increases (income, land, carbon taxes, etc.) to fund these programs could dampen investment and labor supply , potentially hindering long-term growth potential. One study analyzed that funding basic income through income tax hikes could reduce aggregate output, capital, and labor by 22%, 16%, and 19%, respectively, compared to the baseline economy. The net effect depends on funding methods, policy scale, and economic agents' responses, but is estimated to range from -0.2%p to +0.3%p annual average deviation from the baseline (projected annual growth of 1.5%~2.2%).  
• Employment: Basic income raises concerns about potentially weakening labor supply incentives for low-income groups. Conversely, increased consumption could boost labor demand, especially in service sectors. Basic loans might encourage entrepreneurship and self-employment, but the effect could be limited. The net effect is uncertain, likely having a minor impact or causing a slight decrease in the overall employment rate. A cumulative employment change ranging from -50,000 to +100,000 over five years is anticipated.  
• Inflation: Basic income and basic loans are likely to stimulate aggregate demand, increasing demand-pull inflationary pressures. If supply-side constraints persist, the inflation increase could be larger. Depending on policy scale and economic conditions, an additional annual increase of +0.3%p to +0.8%p compared to the baseline (projected annual inflation of 1.6%~2.0%) is possible.
• Fiscal Health: UBI implies a massive, permanent increase in government spending. Funding is key; even with tax increases, fully covering the costs might be difficult, potentially leading to increased national debt. Basic loans also raise the government's contingent liability risks. An additional increase in the national debt-to-GDP ratio of 5%p to 15%p above baseline projections over five years is possible.
• Income Inequality: Basic income and basic loans are designed to directly supplement the income of low-income and vulnerable groups and improve financial access, thus contributing to reducing income inequality. Improvement in distribution indicators like the Gini coefficient is expected. However, the final effect depends on the incidence of tax burdens for funding, labor market responses, etc. One study noted the possibility that if pre-tax income inequality worsens significantly, post-tax inequality could also worsen despite basic income payments.  

Lee Jae-myung's policies represent a strong demand-side approach aiming for short-term stimulus and inequality reduction through income redistribution and consumption promotion. However, these policies potentially entail costs such as reduced incentives for labor supply and saving , heightened inflationary pressure, and a substantial fiscal burden. The success hinges on securing sustainable funding sources and managing potential side effects. The core policy choice lies in balancing short-term demand stimulus and equity improvement against long-term supply-side efficiency and fiscal sustainability.  

3. Estimated Economic Impact of Predicted PPP Nominee (Han Dong-hoon)'s Pledges

• GDP Growth Rate: Regulation Zero Zones and Tax Zero Funds aim to boost growth potential by stimulating investment and innovation in high-tech industries. If successful in attracting corporate investment and driving technological innovation, an additional annual growth of +0.1%p to +0.5%p compared to the baseline (projected annual growth of 1.5%~2.2%) could be expected. However, considering past experiences where the performance of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) fell short of expectations , the actual effectiveness of deregulation and investment incentives is uncertain. The fiscal cost of tax benefits must also be considered.  
• Employment: Developing high-tech industrial clusters could contribute to creating high-skilled, high-wage jobs. However, due to the nature of automation and technology-intensive industries, the overall job creation effect might be limited and likely concentrated in specific industries and regions. If the regional development strategy succeeds, it could contribute to population dispersal from the capital region and increased local employment. The net effect is expected to be positive, but its scale and distribution depend heavily on policy success. A cumulative job creation ranging from +50,000 to +200,000 over five years is estimated.
• Inflation: Supply-side strengthening policies can contribute to price stability in the long run through productivity improvements. In the short term, the impact on inflation is expected to be limited, unless large-scale investment triggers bottlenecks in specific sectors. A deviation ranging from -0.1%p to +0.2%p annual average from the baseline (projected annual inflation of 1.6%~2.0%) is anticipated.
• Fiscal Health: Tax Zero Funds could lead to significant tax revenue reductions. While deregulation itself has low direct fiscal costs, it could affect the tax base in the long run. If the policy successfully achieves high economic growth, the expanded tax base might offset the fiscal burden. However, initially, it is likely to act as pressure towards widening the fiscal deficit and increasing national debt. An additional increase in the national debt-to-GDP ratio of 3%p to 10%p above baseline projections over five years is possible.  
• Income Inequality: Growth centered on high-tech industries and investment might initially concentrate benefits among capitalists and high-skilled workers, potentially worsening income inequality. Although the goal of achieving a '70% middle class' is stated, the specific mechanisms for broadly distributing the fruits of growth are still unclear. If the regional balanced development goals are met, inter-regional gaps might narrow, but inequality within specific growth hub regions could potentially increase.  

Han Dong-hoon's policies correspond to a supply-side strategy aiming to induce private investment and innovation through deregulation and tax incentives. This targets positive effects like strengthening high-tech industry competitiveness and revitalizing regional economies, but its success is uncertain based on past experiences with similar policies (like SEZs). Significant risks include the fiscal burden of drastic deregulation and tax benefits, and the potential for initial deepening of inequality. Policy success depends on the extent of actual regulatory reform, the response of private investment, and the ability to spread the benefits of generated growth throughout society. The core policy choice is between potential high growth and innovation gains versus fiscal costs and distributional issues.  

4. Comparative Outlook and Key Uncertainties

The economic pledges of the two predicted nominees have the potential to lead the South Korean economy down different paths. Lee Jae-myung's policies focus on consumption-led growth and reducing income inequality but carry risks of high inflation and increased fiscal burden. Han Dong-hoon's policies aim to expand growth potential through investment and innovation but face challenges of policy effectiveness uncertainty, fiscal costs, and potential initial worsening of inequality.

Several significant uncertainties cloud these forecasts. First, changes in the global economic environment. Intensifying US-China trade conflicts, spreading protectionism , shifts in major countries' monetary policies, and geopolitical risks can greatly impact the Korean economy. Second, policy implementation effectiveness. Changes during the process of translating pledges into actual policies, practical difficulties in deregulation or funding, and the ability to achieve policy goals will affect the actual outcomes. Third, responses of economic agents. Changes in household consumption and saving behavior, corporate investment decisions, and labor market reactions may differ from predictions. Fourth, political uncertainty. Post-election political stability, relationships between the ruling and opposition parties, and the ability to secure momentum for policy implementation can influence economic sentiment and policy effects.  

Table 4: Summary of Estimated 5-Year Economic Impact of Predicted Nominees' Pledges (Deviation from Baseline)

Economic Indicator	Baseline Forecast (Average/Cumulative)	Predicted Nominee: Lee Jae-myung (Estimated Deviation)	Predicted Nominee: Han Dong-hoon (Estimated Deviation)
Avg. Annual GDP Growth Rate	1.5% ~ 2.2%	-0.2%p ~ +0.3%p	+0.1%p ~ +0.5%p
5-Year Cumulative Employment Change	+500k ~ +800k	-50k ~ +100k	+50k ~ +200k
Avg. Annual CPI Inflation Rate	1.6% ~ 2.0%	+0.3%p ~ +0.8%p	-0.1%p ~ +0.2%p
5-Year Change in Debt-to-GDP Ratio	(Varies by institution)	+5%p ~ +15%p	+3%p ~ +10%p
Income Inequality (Gini, etc.)	(Trend: slight improvement or stagnation)	Likely improvement (but depends on funding/labor market variables)	Potential initial worsening, then possible improvement (depends on growth benefit distribution)

Note: Baseline forecasts are a composite range considering projections from KDI, BOK, IMF, OECD, etc., for 2025-2029. All figures are estimates and subject to uncertainty.

VII. Conclusion

The 2025 snap presidential election is likely to be a significant turning point for South Korea's politics and economy. Held in the aftermath of the unprecedented impeachment of a president, this election carries profound meaning beyond mere regime change or continuation, determining the future direction of national governance and the fundamental tone of economic policy.

In the Democratic Party primary, former leader Lee Jae-myung's overwhelming dominance continues, making his final nomination highly probable. His economic platform is summarized as a demand-driven growth and redistribution strategy centered on universal basic income and basic loans. While this could yield short-term benefits in consumption stimulus and inequality reduction, it simultaneously carries risks of worsening fiscal health and lowering potential growth.

The People Power Party primary, narrowed to four contenders after the first cut-off, will determine its final nominee based on the second round results, which weigh public opinion polls and party member votes equally (50% each). Currently, former interim leader Han Dong-hoon and Mayor Hong Joon-pyo appear relatively competitive, but predictability remains low. Focusing on Han Dong-hoon, the PPP's economic platform emphasizes a supply-side strategy focused on fostering high-tech industries and promoting investment through Regulation Zero Zones and Tax Zero Funds. If successful, this could lead to high growth and innovation, but faces challenges including uncertain policy effectiveness, fiscal costs, and potential initial deepening of inequality.

Ultimately, voters will face a crucial choice between a path prioritizing consumption and redistribution and one emphasizing investment and innovation. Regardless of the winner, the next administration will confront structural challenges such as concerns over entrenched low growth, deepening socio-economic inequality, and rapid demographic shifts. It must also effectively navigate a rapidly changing external environment marked by intensifying US-China strategic competition, rising protectionism, and global supply chain realignments.

The outcome of this election will profoundly influence South Korea's economic destiny for the next five years and beyond. Careful analysis of the feasibility, potential effects, and risks of each candidate's vision and policies, evaluated from the perspective of long-term national development strategy, is required at this critical juncture.

VIII. Appendix: Comprehensive Comparison Table of All Primary Candidates

Appendix Table: Comprehensive Comparison of 2025 Presidential Primary Candidates (Initial Candidates)

Category	Candidate Name	Party Affiliation	Core Economic Pledges (Based on Key Statements)	Other Key Pledges	Key Career Experience	Representative Achievements / Political Stance / Strengths & Weaknesses
DPK (4)	Lee Jae-myung	Democratic Party	- Universal Basic Income (UBI) & Basic Services - Basic Loans - Transformative and Fair Growth (Inequality reduction, Green/Digital transition) - Supports free trade, opposes protectionism	- Prosecution Reform (Separation of investigation/prosecution) <br>- Strengthen Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) <br>- Pragmatic Diplomacy (National interest focus)	- Lawyer<br>- Mayor of Seongnam (2010-2018)<br>- Governor of Gyeonggi Province (2018-2021)<br>- 20th Presidential Candidate<br>- DPK Leader (2022-2025)	- Basic income experiments in Seongnam/Gyeonggi<br>- Strong drive, high recognition<br>- Overwhelming party base support<br>- Legal risks, strongman image (Weakness)
	Kim Dong-yeon	Democratic Party	- 'Cheerful Rebellion' (Dismantling vested interests, social reform)<br>- Centrist pragmatism, emphasis on fair opportunity<br>- Supports 'Yellow Envelope Bill'<br>- Gyeonggi investment attraction & regional development	- Review abolishing Admin. Civil Service Exam (Bureaucratic reform)<br>- 'Greater Peace' (DMZ related)	- Economic Bureaucrat (Vice Minister of Finance, Minister of Gov. Policy Coordination, etc.)<br>- President of Ajou University (15th)<br>- Deputy PM & Minister of Economy and Finance (4th)<br>- Governor of Gyeonggi Province (36th, incumbent)	- Experience in high-ranking positions across governments<br>- Economic expertise, stability, integrity<br>- Centrist appeal (Strength)<br>- Relatively weaker party base (Weakness)
	Kim Kyoung-soo	Democratic Party	(Specific economic pledge information limited)	(Information limited)	- Secretary to President Roh Moo-hyun<br>- National Assembly Member (20th)<br>- Governor of South Gyeongsang Province (37th)	- Key figure in pro-Roh/pro-Moon faction<br>- Conviction & pardon in Druking scandal<br>- Seeking political comeback<br>- Limited appeal & controversy (Weakness)
	Kim Doo-kwan	Democratic Party	(Specific economic pledge info limited, mentioned in NBS poll )	(Information limited)	- Mayor of Namhae County<br>- Minister of Government Administration and Home Affairs<br>- Governor of South Gyeongsang Province (34th)<br>- National Assembly Member (20th, 21st)	- Local autonomy expert<br>- Rich administrative experience<br>- Relatively low recognition (Weakness)
PPP (8)	Kim Moon-soo	People Power Party	- Economy based on defending liberal democracy<br>- Job creation & pension reform <br>- Grand integration/coalition	- Emphasis on being 'candidate who can beat Lee Jae-myung'	- Labor activist<br>- National Assembly Member (15th-17th)<br>- Governor of Gyeonggi Province (32nd, 33rd)<br>- Minister of Employment and Labor	- Gyeonggi Governor pledge fulfillment evaluation <br>- Conservative politician with labor activist background<br>- Strong conservative stance, party member support (Strength)<br>- Controversial remarks, limited appeal (Weakness)<br>- Passed 1st Cut-off
	Na Kyung-won	People Power Party	- Measures for low birth rate & aging society<br>- Ease Seoul metro area regulations (based on past pledges)<br>- Interest in pension reform	- Advocates nuclear armament<br>- Disability rights activism	- Judge<br>- National Assembly Member (17th-20th, 22nd)<br>- GNP/LKP Floor Leader<br>- Vice Chair, Committee on Low Birth Rate & Aging Society	- 5-term veteran, high recognition<br>- Seoul metro area base (Strength)<br>- Contributions to disability rights <br>- Strong conservative image, high disapproval rating (Weakness)<br>- Eliminated in 1st Cut-off
	Ahn Cheol-soo	People Power Party	(Specific 2025 economic pledge info limited)<br>- Emphasis on science/tech-based growth (Past)	- Education reform<br>- Political reform	- Physician, AhnLab Founder<br>- National Assembly Member (19th-22nd)<br>- Co-leader, New Politics Alliance for Democracy<br>- Leader, People Party/Bareunmirae Party<br>- 2017, 2022 Presidential Candidate	- IT/Venture success story<br>- Center-right positioning, rational image<br>- Science/tech expertise (Strength)<br>- Frequent party changes, leadership questions (Weakness)<br>- Passed 1st Cut-off
	Yang Hyang-ja	People Power Party	- Foster semiconductor industry<br>- Cultivate high-tech talent	- Vision for science/tech-centric nation	- Samsung Electronics Executive<br>- National Assembly Member (21st, 22nd)<br>- President, National Human Resources Development Institute<br>- Leader, Hope of Korea Party	- Semiconductor expert<br>- Female former corporate executive<br>- Science/tech expertise (Strength)<br>- Relatively low recognition & organization (Weakness)<br>- Eliminated in 1st Cut-off
	Yoo Jeong-bok	People Power Party	(Specific economic pledge info limited)<br>- Emphasis on Incheon regional development	- Administrative reform	- Administrative Bureaucrat<br>- Mayor of Gimpo<br>- National Assembly Member (17th-19th)<br>- Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs<br>- Minister of Security and Public Administration<br>- Mayor of Incheon (incumbent)	- Extensive administrative & state affairs experience<br>- Stable image (Strength)<br>- Relatively low national recognition (Weakness)<br>- Eliminated in 1st Cut-off
	Lee Cheol-woo	People Power Party	(Specific economic pledge info limited)<br>- Emphasis on balanced regional development	- Response to local extinction crisis	- National Intelligence Service<br>- National Assembly Member (18th-20th)<br>- Governor of North Gyeongsang Province (incumbent)	- Intelligence agency background<br>- TK region base (Strength)<br>- Relatively low national recognition (Weakness)<br>- Eliminated in 1st Cut-off
	Han Dong-hoon	People Power Party	- Regulation Zero Zones<br>- Tax Zero Funds<br>- Goals: Top 3 AI nation, $40k income, 70% middle class<br>- Strategic balanced national development	- Political reform (e.g., shortening term)	- Prosecutor (Senior Prosecutor)<br>- Minister of Justice (69th)<br>- PPP Interim Leader	- First Minister of Justice under Yoon admin.<br>- Relatively new political figure<br>- High expectations within conservative base (Strength)<br>- Short political career, lack of vetting (Weakness)<br>- Passed 1st Cut-off
	Hong Joon-pyo	People Power Party	- 'Country where ordinary people live well'<br>- Strengthen fiscal soundness<br>- Labor reform<br>- Deregulation	- Strengthen security (e.g., nuclear armament stance)<br>- Political reform (e.g., bicameral system)	- Prosecutor<br>- National Assembly Member (15th-18th, 21st)<br>- Leader, Grand National/Liberty Korea Party<br>- Governor of South Gyeongsang Province (35th, 36th)<br>- Mayor of Daegu (35th, incumbent)<br>- 2017 Presidential Candidate (2nd place)	- 'Sandglass Prosecutor' fame<br>- Strong leadership, rich experience, high recognition<br>- Solid party base (Strength)<br>- Controversial remarks, strongman image (Weakness)<br>- Passed 1st Cut-off