How Will Equity Sharing Policies Change the Housing Market?
This dashboard analyzes the multifaceted impact of a hypothetical 'Equity Sharing' housing policy on the South Korean real estate market. This policy is a double-edged sword, potentially fueling price hikes in high-demand areas while risking the marginalization of non-metropolitan markets. Simulate and explore these complex market shifts yourself.
Policy Core Analysis: How Does It Work?
Visually understand the basic structure and key trade-offs of the policy.
Policy Mechanism
Buyer
60% Equity + Loan
Government
40% Equity Investment
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Housing
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Mortgage Repayment
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Occupancy Fee Payment
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The government lowers the initial purchase burden through equity investment. The buyer repays their mortgage and pays a usage fee on the public equity. Profits or losses from a sale are shared based on the equity ratio.
📈 Key Trade-off
It lowers the individual's initial financial burden in exchange for forgoing a portion of future asset value appreciation. Macroscopically, it signifies a structural shift, transferring individual debt risk to national fiscal risk.
⚠️ Inherent Contradiction
This policy effectively bypasses the key household debt management regulation, the DSR (Debt Service Ratio). It doesn't reduce the total debt but reclassifies a portion into an 'equity obligation'.
🌍 Global Lesson: UK's 'Help to Buy'
The most similar UK case led to the 'capitalization of subsidies,' where injecting subsidies into a supply-constrained market artificially inflated new housing prices. The policy's success hinges on the ability to deliver large-scale new supply.
Scenario Simulator: How Will the Market React?
Click the buttons below to see predicted changes in the real estate market for each scenario.
Housing Price Fluctuation Forecast by Scenario
Scenario Summary
Key Predictive Indicators
Markov Regime
Housing CAPE Ratio
LPPL Bubble Confidence
Public Fiscal Risk
Industry Impact: Opportunity or Crisis?
A comparative analysis of the policy's contrasting effects on the construction and finance industries (based on the neutral scenario).
📈 Construction: Opportunity (Samsung C&T)
The creation of stable, government-backed effective demand dramatically reduces the 'unsold inventory risk.' This is likely to improve sales prices and profit margins, enhance cash flow stability, and positively impact corporate value.
📉 Finance: Crisis (KB Financial Group)
A significant portion of the core mortgage market is replaced by public equity investment, threatening the traditional banking revenue model. Pressure on the Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to lower ROE, requiring new strategies like transitioning to a service provider role.
Global Expert Views: What if 10 Investment Gurus Weighed In?
Examining the policy through the philosophies of world-renowned investors. Click on a card to see the details.
