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Monday, July 14, 2025

Can Shiba Inu Reach ₩1?

Shiba Inu to ₩1: An Interactive Deep Dive Analysis

Can Shiba Inu Reach ₩1?

A Data-Driven Quantitative Analysis

Required Market Cap to Reach ₩1

0 Trillion KRW

This analyzer validates the possibility of Shiba Inu reaching ₩1 not with 'hope', but with 'data'. It objectively analyzes market cap, burn mechanisms, and ecosystem value to explore the reality of that path.

The Scale Wall: The Weight of ₩589 Trillion

What is the magnitude of a ₩589 trillion market cap if Shiba Inu were to reach ₩1? Comparing it with the world's largest assets reveals its unreality. The chart below shows how the target market cap dwarfs the current top assets.

The Burn Reality: A Drop in the Ocean

Token burning is known as a key strategy to increase price by reducing supply. But what does the current burn mean in the face of a massive 589 trillion circulating supply? We analyze the reality of the burn mechanism and its limited effect.

The Myth: "Burn Rate Surges Thousands of Percent!"

News of soaring burn rates on social media excites investors. However, this is often a temporary phenomenon based on small-scale burns, not a sustainable trend.

The Reality: Negligible Absolute Amount

When the weekly burn rate surged by 1,783%, the actual amount burned was about 1.05 billion SHIB. This is only ~0.00018% of the total circulating supply, having virtually no impact on price.

The Dilemma: The Value vs. Burn Paradox

Shibarium, the hope for automated burns, needs its network to be hundreds or thousands of times more active to generate a meaningful burn volume. In other words, value must rise first for the burn to become significant.

Shibarium Burn Process

1

Transaction Occurs

A transaction happens on the Shibarium network (fees paid in BONE).

2

BONE Accumulates

70% of the base fee is collected in a specific contract.

3

Conversion to SHIB

Accumulated BONE is auto-swapped for SHIB upon reaching a $25,000 threshold.

4

Permanent Burn

The converted SHIB is sent to a dead wallet, permanently removed from circulation.

Ecosystem Health Check

Shiba Inu emphasizes utility by building its own ecosystem with Shibarium (L2) and ShibaSwap (DEX). But what is the actual economic value of this ecosystem compared to its competitors?

Shibarium's Total Value Locked (TVL) is significantly lower than competing L2 solutions, showing it has yet to attract meaningful DeFi activity. (Y-axis is a logarithmic scale)

Investor Psychology: The Invisible Wall

On-chain data reveals complex investor psychology and behavior. The fact that a majority of holders are at a loss can act as an invisible resistance to price appreciation.

The Diamond Hands Paradox

According to data, 77% of SHIB holders are long-term holders ('HODLers') of over a year. This seems to show strong community trust.

Potential Selling Pressure (Overhang)

However, over 80% of holders are also at a loss. This suggests most long-term holders bought at the 2021 peak, representing a massive potential resistance force that could sell as soon as the price nears their entry point.

Future Scenario Analysis

Synthesizing all data, we predict three main scenarios for Shiba Inu from the second half of 2025. This is an example simulation and does not guarantee specific outcomes.

Optimistic Scenario

'L2 Competition Entry & Meme Coin Supercycle'

  • Shibarium secures market share in a niche (e.g., gaming).
  • Pro-crypto regulations and rate cuts lead to a liquidity surge.
  • Accelerated burn mechanism strengthens the 'utility' narrative.

Est. Range: ₩0.04 ~ ₩0.08

Neutral Scenario

'Slow Growth Conforming to the Market'

  • Shibarium grows slowly but fails to differentiate from L2 competitors.
  • Burn effect is minimal; price moves in sync with the overall market.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty continues, leading to a modest market rise.

Est. Range: ₩0.015 ~ ₩0.025

Pessimistic Scenario

'Utility Transition Failure & Fading Interest'

  • The 'TVL-Transaction Paradox' persists, lacking real economic activity.
  • Loses users and developers to competing L2s.
  • Potential selling pressure limits upside, market interest wanes.

Est. Range: ₩0.008 ~ ₩0.012

Final Verdict

Based on current tokenomics and ecosystem value, reaching ₩1 is mathematically and economically near-impossible for Shiba Inu. This target would require a confluence of miracles, such as a dramatic change in supply or the ecosystem's transcendent success, that are difficult to imagine.

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This material is an AI analysis example, and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual.
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