Can Shiba Inu Reach ₩1?
A Data-Driven Quantitative Analysis
Required Market Cap to Reach ₩1
This analyzer validates the possibility of Shiba Inu reaching ₩1 not with 'hope', but with 'data'. It objectively analyzes market cap, burn mechanisms, and ecosystem value to explore the reality of that path.
The Scale Wall: The Weight of ₩589 Trillion
What is the magnitude of a ₩589 trillion market cap if Shiba Inu were to reach ₩1? Comparing it with the world's largest assets reveals its unreality. The chart below shows how the target market cap dwarfs the current top assets.
The Burn Reality: A Drop in the Ocean
Token burning is known as a key strategy to increase price by reducing supply. But what does the current burn mean in the face of a massive 589 trillion circulating supply? We analyze the reality of the burn mechanism and its limited effect.
The Myth: "Burn Rate Surges Thousands of Percent!"
News of soaring burn rates on social media excites investors. However, this is often a temporary phenomenon based on small-scale burns, not a sustainable trend.
The Reality: Negligible Absolute Amount
When the weekly burn rate surged by 1,783%, the actual amount burned was about 1.05 billion SHIB. This is only ~0.00018% of the total circulating supply, having virtually no impact on price.
The Dilemma: The Value vs. Burn Paradox
Shibarium, the hope for automated burns, needs its network to be hundreds or thousands of times more active to generate a meaningful burn volume. In other words, value must rise first for the burn to become significant.
Shibarium Burn Process
Transaction Occurs
A transaction happens on the Shibarium network (fees paid in BONE).
BONE Accumulates
70% of the base fee is collected in a specific contract.
Conversion to SHIB
Accumulated BONE is auto-swapped for SHIB upon reaching a $25,000 threshold.
Permanent Burn
The converted SHIB is sent to a dead wallet, permanently removed from circulation.
Ecosystem Health Check
Shiba Inu emphasizes utility by building its own ecosystem with Shibarium (L2) and ShibaSwap (DEX). But what is the actual economic value of this ecosystem compared to its competitors?
Shibarium's Total Value Locked (TVL) is significantly lower than competing L2 solutions, showing it has yet to attract meaningful DeFi activity. (Y-axis is a logarithmic scale)
Investor Psychology: The Invisible Wall
On-chain data reveals complex investor psychology and behavior. The fact that a majority of holders are at a loss can act as an invisible resistance to price appreciation.
The Diamond Hands Paradox
According to data, 77% of SHIB holders are long-term holders ('HODLers') of over a year. This seems to show strong community trust.
Potential Selling Pressure (Overhang)
However, over 80% of holders are also at a loss. This suggests most long-term holders bought at the 2021 peak, representing a massive potential resistance force that could sell as soon as the price nears their entry point.
Future Scenario Analysis
Synthesizing all data, we predict three main scenarios for Shiba Inu from the second half of 2025. This is an example simulation and does not guarantee specific outcomes.
Optimistic Scenario
'L2 Competition Entry & Meme Coin Supercycle'
- Shibarium secures market share in a niche (e.g., gaming).
- Pro-crypto regulations and rate cuts lead to a liquidity surge.
- Accelerated burn mechanism strengthens the 'utility' narrative.
Est. Range: ₩0.04 ~ ₩0.08
Neutral Scenario
'Slow Growth Conforming to the Market'
- Shibarium grows slowly but fails to differentiate from L2 competitors.
- Burn effect is minimal; price moves in sync with the overall market.
- Macroeconomic uncertainty continues, leading to a modest market rise.
Est. Range: ₩0.015 ~ ₩0.025
Pessimistic Scenario
'Utility Transition Failure & Fading Interest'
- The 'TVL-Transaction Paradox' persists, lacking real economic activity.
- Loses users and developers to competing L2s.
- Potential selling pressure limits upside, market interest wanes.
Est. Range: ₩0.008 ~ ₩0.012